NFL 2015 Season Week 3 Picks Against the Spread

Last week, 4-4. (Glad I added a late update, taking the Giants at minus 2.5, who went on to blow a double digit 4th quarter lead two weeks in a row; and who also made several mistakes after creeping into field goal territory or picking up key 4th downs deep – but hey, that’s part of who the Giants are, right?)

Year to date: 10-6. And with some bad picks last week: Such as Buffalo, who I picked even after learning th confounded Bills “haven’t been to the playoffs since before the medieval ages” organization still had the cornball nerve to sell some supposedly Patriots mocking Deflategate “football air pumps” for the game.

That’s a good way to calm the Patriots and get them primed for a cush contest. Like poking a stick at hornets is calming.

If you have to play the hornets, grab the stick. But even implicitly joking they’re wussy bees who need to cheat to win, when all they’ve done is whupped you this entire century? Seems like a bad move.

Memo, to Bills: Don’t mock opponents that have owned you for nearly fifteen years over psi inflations having nothing to do with your game, and before you even beat them. (Note, Tom Brady came into the game 23-3 against the Bills. He left 24-3. Nice mockery job, Buffalo.)

So this week, first pick, who do we have? Well, of course, the Tyrannosaurus Rex Ryans:

1. Buffalo Bills (+3) at Miami Dolphins

If Buffalo’s the team I think they are (or maybe at this point it should be “thought”), they’re even or a bit ahead to win; and yet are pegged as underdogs for the contest.

Sure the Dolphins have the home field heat advantage (tough in Miami in September). But, weather aside, when these two teams play the home field really doesn’t mean too much. (Note: Here it might because of that weather: Given the role of temperature changes I just checked Miami’s forecast: 89 degrees at game time, with a 99 index. Between white jerseys and the natural thinner blood acclimation for the team practicing and living in the warmer area, it’s an advantage.)

And while the Dolphins just lost – not to the Patriots either, but to the team with more losses over the past three seasons than any other in the NFL – and will be rearing for a key division win in this their “this, time, we make it” season, the Bills may just be the better football team still.

Ryan Tannehill’s great, bla bla Been suggesting it since his first season when despite a super nice year by historical standards for a QB rook, he was overshadowed by the triple monster performances of one Lucky guy, RW, and some guy named R2d2 – or RG3, I get the nicknames confused. (But either way, a guy currently languishing as perhaps the highest priced 3rd string QB the game has seen, and who should be traded to a team in need of QB potential. And yes a triple win trade can be accomplished; the easily remediable, and in everybody’s interest to do so, “no cut if injured” clause on next year’s option notwithstanding. I’ll show how in another post.)

But consider Miami’s week 1 17-10 win at the Redskins: A likely underrated team (at least when Kirk Cousins isn’t having one of his every so often multi quarter mild play meltdowns) that outplayed Miami and probably should have won. (The Skins made a routine but large strategy error late in the game; gave up a 69 yard punt return for a TD and had marginal punting as well; and dropped two easy picks (by Culliver and Robinson, and Culliver’s would have probably been a pick six) – that had a good chance of changing the game’s outcome.)

The point is, Tannehill’s stats show 0 picks for the game. It’s a team sport, and randomness affects the numbers that alter our perception of individual performance: Two easy catches by NFL defensive backs, for whom catching footballs should be as automatic and easy as brushing one’s teeth (but apparently, through lack of proper kinesthetic and extra challenging multi sensory pass catch training, or whatever, it’s not), and Tannehill has bad stats, not good ones.  Yet the drops versus catches have nothing to do with how Tannehill performed.

He is good though, and should be on his game, at home, in a big matchup for his team that, facing two expectedly “poor” opponents first, they’ve probably been looking toward since preseason.

But perhaps a humbled Rex has his team more quietly fired up this time; and also has them flying a little more under the radar after their perhaps sudden self presumption of excellence after rolling a normally slow starting Colts team in week 1.

If he doesn’t, the team is probably not that good, and my pick of them to win the division, in hindsight, possibly wrong. (And it may be anyway, because I’m starting to suspect that the Patriots, after an entire offseason where their performance was implicitly questioned through the never ending “Deflategate” saga, are also somewhat quietly seething, and even more focused as a result.)

Pick: Bills

2. San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) at Arizona Cardinals

(Post game update: This is the worst pick of the season so far. I guess I forgot to remind myself of this.) The 49ers, even if Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater had his worst game, and the whole Vikings team seemed to play as if they simply expected to win (unlike in week 2 when they came out against the Lions and played with a different intensity level), showed in week 1 that they can play.

The Cardinals, last week’s game against the Bears (and after some key Chicago injuries) aside, don’t usually blow teams out. And it’s a division game: After several years of the 49ers being the challenged team, it’s also one with the tables now plausibly turned; and the battle should be well fought. [Again, this.]

While the Cardinals obviously have the edge in winning, it wouldn’t be that big of a true upset if the 49ers won. And given the division intensity and history, there’s a reasonable chance the game could be close, making this an easy pick with the almost touchdown cushion the 49ers are being given here.

Pick: 49ers 

3. New Orleans Saints (+9) at Carolina Panthers

Seriously, did Drew Brees really play all that fantastically in weeks 1 and 2?

I watched every play; and while Brees has been one of the best QBs in the NFL for a long time, and may still be well up there, it’s conceivable that the drop off to long time backup Luke McCown may not be as big as anticipated because of Brees’ play the first two weeks.

But then again, in those two weeks the Saints also lost twice – to the Cardinals, and then to the Buccaneers: That is, to the very same team who after winning all of two games in 2014 and just before playing the Saints, also lopsidedly lost in week 1 of this season as well. And it was a loss to the Titans no less, who themselves had also somehow managed the considerable feat of only winning 2 games in 2014, mirroring the Bucs.

Which of course, doesn’t bode well for the Saints either.

Still, the large underdog line represents too much compensation for the QB loss and the embarassing home debacle against the Bucs in week 2 (in which, however, and making matters worse, they were largely ouplayed, not simply “unlucky”): And it could be a harbinger that the Saints’ reasonably long run as a competitive team, including within their division, is over.

But the Panthers are a defensive oriented team. And though they aren’t among the league leaders in winning close games, they don’t tend toward large blowouts either. 8 points is a large cushion in a game that, given that the South doesn’t look like it’s going to be a pushover, could represent a Saintly desperation effort to keep this season’s hopes alive, and make it a tougher battle than it otherwise should be. (And possibly even shock the NFL world and Panthers in the process – don’t be surprised if it happens.) Then again they may not.

It’s far from a lock. But it’s too early to be taking the Panthers as huge favorites aginst even a QB depleted but traditionally tough division foe, especially with LB Luke Kuechly out.

Pick: Saints

(Update: Original number was +8 for the Saints, yesterday when article posted it had moved past 9, and now is 10. Which seems like an over reaction)

3A. Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Okay, after this game I’ll have a lot of hindsight, and give you a great analysis as to who will win.

But before the game, are you kidding me? We’re slogging along at 10-6 on the year against the spread here – let’s keep that above .500 pace alive rather than risk it on a few coin tosses like the Bills and Lions were last week.

So why the write up? It’s just a great matchup, that’s all. Let’s face it, Tony Romo has been playing silk smooth, but the Cowboys have not played as well at home as on the road; meanwhile the Falcons are seemingly clicking on all cyclinders. And in Cowboys backup Brandon Weeden they’re going up against a QB who’s 5-15 in his career.

Granted, all but one of those games was with the Browns. But it’s still a really lousy record; Weeden (a wacky draft pick when the Browns wasted a first rounder on a then 28 year old “potential upside but already very mature college player” as their projected starter), hasn’t played all that well much of the time; and one of the Cowboys rare losses last year came in their one game with Weeden at the helm, and the game ultimately wasn’t all that close either.

While sure, he has arm skills, and could surprise, the drop off from Romo to Weeden is pretty significant as far as QB dropoffs go – kind of a big one. (Also note, as far as the Browns go, that pick of Weeden wasn’t even their worst move of that same 2012 first round: as the Browns just “had to make sure to have” running back Trent Richardson, and traded away three later picks in order to move up one single spot to number 3 overall just in case the Adrian Peterson rich and left tackle poor Minnesota Vikings traded away that third pick in the draft to someone else, and the Browns universe thus crumble away. I watched that draft, as always took copious notes, and for about the 500th time prayed, of course first for world peace, greater tolerance, less fervently held misinformation, hatred, righteousness and infringement on others in the world; and more personally, to be a team General Manager.)

This is just a great week 3 contest though: Dallas was my NFC pick to make it to the Super Bowl. But with a reasonable chance for Dez Bryant’s foot to not heal until very late or even at all this season, and Romo – in possibly what will utlimately be a faster healing injury, – out for at least 8 games, and a bit of a disapointment in the run game (I thought Darren McFadden might surprise, but it looks like his very early career flashes of great ability once again aren’t showing), it’s looking weaker at this point. I can’t even pick ’em in a tossup game against the Falcons, who are really playing with a renewed energy this year , and so far look to be in the early stages of also writing a strong season and improvement story.

I want to. I did pick them to win the entire NFC, after all, injury riddled or not. But I’m sticking with a more select group of picks here, and just can’t figure this game out. For those that can, email me.

Dallas is not just missing Romo and Bryant, but left guard Ronald Leary is out. Free agent rookie pick up La’el Collins, who took 1 snap at the position for every 2 by Mackenzy Bernadeaue in the week 2 win at Philadelphia (although the team reportedly didn’t even think he was sufficiently ready to even suit up for week 1), has been named the starter over Bernadeaue for the game.

Collins was originally targeted as a first round pick, before being questioned, without ever being a suspect, with respect to a heinous crime. And NFL teams, forgetting that police ask anybody with relevant information questions too, naturally flipped out and dropped him like a hot potato, also seemingly forgetting that the very act of drafting an untested player is a risk, and more importantly that this possible addition simply changed the calculus a little bit.

Veteran stalwart defensive end Jeremy Mincey is also now out. Big offseason acquisition Greg Hardy isn’t eligible to play until game 5. Promising rookie draft pick Randy Gregory is still hurt. Tight end Jason Witten is reportely playing with a few injuries.

Pick: None. Just a middling write up.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers

Upset alert: This game is near a tossup. So, as no one is picking the Chiefs, here you go: Chiefs win.

Putting aside trying to capture public perception, as lines must also do, the line should be 3 (maybe 3.5), for the Packers solid home field advantage. They usually seem to play much better in Green Bay. And the Chiefs also slightly lean toward being a better than average home versus road team.

But right now, but for prior expectations and perception, there’s no great way to peg the Packers as the better team. They beat the Seahawks. But, if closer, so did the Rams. They beat the Bears. Then the Cardinals half walloped the Bears.

The Chiefs are healthier than last year, have gotten a few key players back and have more depth, are a little under the radar this year, and as with the Packers also have a traditionally very successful coach.

Presumably they’re also hungrier; and presumably very hungry after blowing a key divisional and likely ultimate playoff game relevant matchup versus methuselah but still super savvy and competent Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

They stood toe to toe with the Broncos, in a game Denver was no doubt jacked up for, and in the majority of respects played a better game. Sure the Texans look meek so far this season, but the Chiefs also solidly outplayed them in week 1 in Houston.

While every game matters, being in the tough AFC West, they need a win, and this is the game the Chiefs make their statement That is, if they are capable of making that statement. And there is more than a good enough chance that they are that the game could be considered closer to a true tossup than the somewhat lopsided winner loser context the 6.5 spread suggests.

With the points, and even though when the Packers win at home (which is a lot), it’s not a close game anywhere near the league average, this is still an easy pick.

Pick: Chiefs

Note: There’s still more film to watch, so this might be updated before tomorrow afternoon with another game. None of the above picks will change once made; but if more worthwhile information is revealed in film, I’ll add it in an update as well.

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One thought on “NFL 2015 Season Week 3 Picks Against the Spread

  1. Pingback: NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread | NFL Football Strategy

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