Week 15 NFL Pick Against the Spread

Update: Season record to date…..let’s see, carry the 1, divide by the hypotenuse, multiply by the square root of the cube… Wait, no, I just found it. Each week in all its laborious glory: Right down to the “who’s gonna play tough” guesswork more relevant than who’s going to stop which player – since stopping x or y guy on the field sounds great, but is present every game for all players as a team.

That is, two things matter in picking games: Which team is better at the moment and where the game is being played. And who is more likely to play hard.

Most of the stuff we hear about who will win because this or that team can “run the ball well” or something similar, sounds great; but doesn’t matter.

If team A, for example, struggling with the pass and relying on the run, andnow facing team B who is “guess what,” good at stopping the run (an analysis I just heard on an excellent flagship football show offered as rationale for why team A would lose), that means team B is weaker at stopping the pass. Which against a struggling passing team who can use the weak pass defense help so they can introduce balance back to their offensive attack, may be even more relevant than the fact their opponents are good at stopping the run.

Or it may not be. And if team B is also stronger at stopping the pass, it simply means team B has a good defense. Which means Team A’s defense catches a break. Or it team B also has a good offense, it means team B simply has a better football team, which is the real reason team A is more likely to lose. Etc., etc.

In contrast to analysis that makes it sound otherwise, it’s extremely hard to pick out in advance which team will play well against another team apart from a) how good they are, and b) how hard they are going to play. And the best way to determine this is history (and even then that’s often because one team tends to play hard, or “charged up” against another one), or on rare occasion a particular talent by one team that offsets a talent by the other that most other teams can’t seem to stop; but trying to figure this out in advance often gets confused with simply focusing in one area of the game and not realizing it is offset by other areas. And that if it’s not offset by other areas, it usually simply means that one team is better than the other one, which is why they are more likely to win.

Thus a lot of analysis we hear about which team is going to win that doesn’t focus on who is actually better, and who is likely to play better in that particular game, sounds great, but isn’t otherwise of as much value as it sounds. That’s why many picks you read even by experts at the country’s leading sports sites, against the spread at least, (or straight up for otherwise very close games) are about the same as a coin flip. Or worse.

That said, the picks here ain’t much better:  Season history to date: Week 14: 4-4. Week 13: 4-4 Week 12: 4-3.  Week 11: 4-2-1. Week 10: 3-3. Week 9 3-3. “Debacle week” 8: 3-5.  Week 7: 2-1 Season record to date: 27-25-1, not counting the 1-0 record this week so far.(28-25 -1, or 29-25-1 including last Thursday, with outside verification that the Browns at +6 were a “pick em” possible upset pick at the Bengals back in week 10, but I didn’t get to this column in time. I ranted about it as if I had 40,000 dollars on the game, 5 million weekly readers, and was in a heads up season long gentleman’s wager with the far funnier Bill Simmons (nice picks column here by Simmons, for example) for post season bragging rights, rather than – well – really no real reason at all.)

Though, we are here sporting a perfect record so far with (sparingly offered) upset picks.

That should change this week however – can’t keep hitting on every one. Plus this week has two outright upset pick calls. And really, they are both close games rather than strong favorites to pull an upset. (Though given the teams involved, as you’ll see below, that doesn’t necessarily mean the games should be close if the upset team loses; but in the case of one at least it should.)

Cardinals (+6) at Rams, Thursday Night Football

This is simple. Over the past several weeks, and notwithstanding a close loss at San Diego 3 weeks ago, the St. Louise Rams have been close to the best team in football. The cardinals have overachieved. And Drew Stanton is not even close to Carson Palmer at quarterback. (Update: Stanton got hurt, and Ryan Lindley – who will likely start next week and probably the week after that for the Cardinals, before Stanton, with the same type of MCL sprain that sidelined Larry Fitzgerald for two games a little earlier in the season, can return for the playoffs – is not even close to Drew Stanton at quarterback. Though when not throwing passes that traveled closer to opponents than his own teammates, he otherwise showed good judgment and quick decision making.)

And, just before the just below the surface potential of the St. Louis Rams (for two seasons now) finally exploded, they went into Arizona in week 10 and were leading 14-10 early in the 4th quarter (against a Carson Palmer led team), before they fell apart (right after, ironically, Palmer tore his ACL).

Since then they’ve beaten the Denver Broncos 22-7 – holding them scoreless in the second half in the process – lost 24-27 at the San Diego Chargers, beaten the Oakland Raiders 52-0, and beaten the Washington Redskins in Washington, 24-0. (The team that traded away half of its draft to this same Rams team back in 2012, so they could draft a quarterback who is now benched.)

But the Cardinals, who still have to face the Seattle Seahawks and who have seen their once dominant division lead fall to a slim one game lead (and they’ve already lost to the Seahawks once), won’t go down without a fight.

The edge to win the game goes to the team who is better right now, and who is playing for something as important to this team as making the playoffs:  The pride of running the table and showing they not only belong in what is still the toughest overall division in football, but that they might be able to soon take it.

Six points, however, is too many against a desperate team that will battle, in a likely lower scoring game between two defensive oriented clubs, in what shapes up to be one of the most interesting games of the season – and will remain so after the fact no matter how it turns out.

Very close, because right now the St. Louis Rams are probably the favorite to win the NFC West next year, and probably the entire NFC, but,

Pick: Cardinals

As always, the remainder of games picked against the spread will be added prior to late Sunday Game Day morning.

Update: Well, that time is now once again upon us.  But also notice how Thursday Night’s Pick went from “this is simple,” to “very close” by the end of the discussion.  It was simple. And, in hindsight, given the Cardinals outright 12-6 win, better if the “very close” was left off, which kind of lamefied my pick. (I’ll check with Webster’s D later to make sure they’ve finally included “lamefied,” as a verb. If not I’ll suggest it.)

Column/post/prattling is still to come on that strong Rams Cardinals contest, which from a pure NFL and football rather than “marquee” perspective, was an excellent one entering the game. And for some who like real defense –  and not just aerial shows up and down the field with less strategy – trickier scores, and defensive balance, was an excellent game as well.

There was also a series of two remarkable strategy decisions in a row in the game by the Cardinals, which will get a separate column/post/prattle fest, since they go to some of the key structural mechanics of the game being overlooked in routine “strategic” game decision situations, and that serve as excellent examples of each.

But that’s later to come. In the meantime, the Rams are, and will remain, next year’s dark horse pick. Watch out for them. And if they pick up some strong receiver and offensive line help, double watch out for them.

Also – though it seems “about as unlikely as if a multi million year level of change to the concentration of the same long lived greenhouse molecules responsible for keeping our earth from being a lifeless frozen ball of ice and rock hurtling to space somehow wouldn’t change earth’s climate” – if they happen to surreptitiously swap places with the New Orleans Saints, and thus clandestinely plant themselves into the thick of the AFC South instead of the current best division in football, triple watch out for them.

Unauthorized division swapping unfortunately is of course a tad bit unprecedented, and highly taboo by the basic rules.  (Though trading division places for draft picks might make for some interesting machinations, as teams foolishly give up draft picks in order to move into “easier” divisions, only to then see those divisions quickly turn strong.) Plus, the guys who makes the NFL schedule, along with the rest of us – and certainly the other teams – would probably need to find out about it at some point.

So okay, let’s face it: The Rams will still be in a division with the always under rated Arizona Cardinals, the San Francisco 49ers (who will come back tough next year if Harbaugh remains) and the Legions of Boom up in Seattle, who seem to have gotten their boom on recently, and are not a team anybody wants to play right now. (Although Arizona plays them in week 16, just like last year. And, guess who – St. Louis – hits them up in Seattle to close out the season. In a game that might really wind up mattering for Seattle, both for the division title and a first round bye, or an extra game and wild card trip on the road or, pending, possibly even making the playoffs at all.)

But once again, right now, entering next year with the return of Sam Bradford and a young, hungry, improving team under a decent head coach, watch out for the Rams next year.

So let’s do some picks. Buckle up, this week’s are strong: (So I say now. Check back Monday.)

Raiders (+10) at Chiefs

This game is a bit lopsided from a spread perspective. If you follow football, do you really need the analysis here?  When a team is getting 1o points (even in today’s explosive score oriented NFL) and stands a legitimate chance of winning the game, there’s no decision to be made.

If you don’t think the lowly 2-11 Raiders have a legitimate chance to defeat even their now desperate for a win to stay alive, and playing at home, and hated, division rivals, you haven’t been playing close attention to football. (But don’t laugh too hard if the Raiders lose 28-13. Nothing is locked in gold in football except the idea that the Jaguars are awful and should be banished to the CFL, or get themselves yet another new GM (once again Shahid Kahn, I volunteer), or that the Titans didn’t have to be absolutely miserable this season (losing by at least 14 points in an astounding 8 out of their 11 losses so far this season) to prove an idea I suggested months ago in heavily questioning their offseason firing (though “questioning” is a nice word), of then head coach Mike Munchak.)

In week 12 Oakland wins their very first game of the season -against these very same Chiefs, 24-20.

They promptly go the following week and lose, 52-0.  And, lose to our very own dark horse Super Bowl contender for next season, the St. Louis Rams. (Here’s an interesting analysis of that next game, before the fact.)

Then, they apparently try a little harder the following week (last week) and pull off another big upset, against the San Francisco 49ers, 24-13. (24 seems to be their number in those rare instances they win games this season.)

So, now another post big win let down for the currently “over achieving” two win team? Or is it possible that the Raiders have learned their lesson.

Probably not. But being as this is the Chiefs, and the team that Oakland would probably rather beat than any team in the NFL – let alone sweep – for this game, they may have learned it.

And again, 10 is a lot of points for this much potential emotion, with a team that has shown it can beat the Chiefs, and- even if the Chiefs do need a division win badly to keep their season alive – that are playing a little better themselves.

It would be cool, but probably less likely that the Raiders sweep. But between their chances of winning the game outright, and their larger chances of at least playing with some serious spark to try and give their season some meaning by showing they can dominate at least one of the good teams in the division, 10 is still too large a number for this game even with some additional bad injury news for the somewhat depleted Raiders squad.

Pick: Raiders

Bengals (-1) at Browns

As Joey Lawrence used to so accurately say on the hip 90s sitcom “Blossom”: Whoa!

Johnny Football, the guy who stood in front of a more elderly crowd in cute leotards and led them through some dandy exercises before being woken up by an appropriately much older (and hence wiser) NFL player, the guy who captured the country’s sports heart with his swashbuckling style as a devil may care quarterback at Texas A&M who just won baby, gets his first start in the NFL. (While he also appropriately laughed off another set of silly (okay, stupid) comments by the Bengals head coach.) (Manziel incidentally was also the 837th pick of the 2014 Major League Baseball draft. Which put him, let’s see… again, carry the 1, divide by pie…. um, infinity spots ahead of me in that particular major league baseball draft.)

Last week, in foolishly picking the Bengals as 3 point favorites against Pittsburgh, this blog boldly stated:

The Bengals are simply a better football team. The question to be answered here is whether they have as much heart as Pittsburgh traditionally shows. Because Pittsburgh, more likely than not, will show it here.

Outscored 25-0 in the fourth quarter en route to their 42-21 home loss to Pittsburgh (whom they meet again in Pittsburgh to close out the season in week 17), that question was probably answered.

Now, embarrassed, and if the Bengals lose again this weekend with the Steelers able to vault ahead with a win at Atlanta (as can Baltimore with a win at Jacksonville, where they are 14 point favorites), will they show heart this game?

Maybe, maybe not. But given that they’re going against a still largely untested rookie making his first NFL start, on paper at least are still the better team, and have the strong revenge factor in a key playoff implication divisional game on their side, they’re the call to make here.

But still, how can you not root for Johnny JamBoogie?

I’ll be rooting for him and his semi underdog Browns to make this the wrong pick.

But, after their embarrassment at home to the Steelers last week to put Pittsburgh back into the race, if this Bengals team can’t even up the series against the Browns after getting demolished by them on national TV at home in week 10 (in my best pick on this blog that never officially got made), then Marvin Lewis, with his 0-5 playoff record, should walk out of the stadium and go join the Jaguars in Canada. (Or London, once Roger Goodell gets his way. Though if I was Jacksonville’s GM I wouldn’t let Lewis within 100 miles of the franchise,  unless it was as defensive coordinator, and with a standing gag order to desist from making medicinal related commentary on concussions, and other wildly inane statements that wholly miss the point of what was done wrong and incorrectly assumed with respect to concussions in the past.)

Pick: Bengals – Marvin’s team

Make this the wrong pick Johnny Boogie and a Browns team that repeatedly shows heart, and sweep those Tigers.

49ers (+9) at Seahawks

At some point this San Francisco team has to tailspin. And it looks like while earlier in the year they kept it somewhat together despite a bunch of injuries and rumors about head coach Jim Harbaugh leaving (which have only increased), that tailspin may now be happening. Particularly if the players are resigned to losing their head coach, and know they may be playing under new leadership (or even for a different team) next year.

And the Seahawks, who have gotten over their early post Super Bowl Championship slump (though the return of defensive superstars Kam Chancellor and in particular linebacker Bobby Wagner has certainly helped), would probably like little more than to pummel the 49ers once again; just as they did Thanksgiving evening just two weeks ago down in the Santa Clara area. (The 49ers new “home” digs.)

But this is the 49ers, and Harbaugh’s 4th season as a head coach in the league. He has taken them to the NFC championship game every one of this first three seasons. (And he didn’t take over all that great of a team, either.)

When he says all they really have left to play for at this point is “pride,” it may still mean something with this bunch.  And there’s little more prideful than being able to show that while they may be down and out, they can still go into Seattle and avenge their NFC championship game loss from last season and show they still got that swagger, and in effect declare, “come on 2015, bring it on, whoever leads our charge.”

They just may not have the ability to do it right now. And Seattle knows they’re going against a wounded team with a lot of pride, who have a fierce rivalry with them and who have won an awful lot of games over the last few seasons, with a chance at some serious season redemption. And so the Seahawks, who have lately been showing it anyway, likely won’t lose focus.

But given the rivalry and the potential for enormous passion on the part of the 49ers, which can make any game close – and the 49ers are by no means a bad team, yet are coming off a loss to the Oakland Raiders of all teams – this is a San Francisco call all the way.

Sure they could get pummeled, as Seattle likes to do to San Francisco, and has done to San Francisco a few times now up in Seattle recently when San Francisco was a lot better team even. But for this game, don’t necessarily bet on it.

Pick: 49ers

Broncos (-5) at Chargers

Yeah, Denver Broncos, Bla bla bla bla…

And Peyton Manning, who has suddenly been playing subpar (but the Broncos keep on winning) could at any moment turn into superman with a football (again); but this game is one of the better match-ups of the season, regardless.

And despite many claims to the contrary, when the Chargers played Denver back in late October (though a bit more injury riddled than at the moment, albeit they are still down to their 4th center, having lost a remarkable 3 total successive starting centers to season ending injuries), and lost 35-21, the Chargers actually did get outplayed.

But, while it doesn’t matter too too much where the game is being played when these two teams meet, this is December; it is in San Diego; the Chargers need the game badly, the Broncos don’t (as much, though it’s true they do need it, and they don’t want to have to go up to New England to advance); the Chargers, despite that earlier season loss, know how to battle Denver in general; and, most importantly, “this is Philip Rivers time”: That is, late November and December – with a shot at a playoff berth with wins – is where this quarterback has shone like no one else in the league apart from someone named Tom Brady.

It doesn’t mean he will again, or that the better team here – Denver – won’t win. But this is more likely the Chargers game for the taking. Upset pick; Chargers win outright.

Thus, against the spread, naturally,

Pick: Chargers 

Packers (-5) at Bills 

Yes, the Packers could be facing the Patriots (or someone else) in the Super Bowl later this season. (Or it could just as easily if perhaps not more easily be the Seahawks – with the Lions, Cowboys, Eagles, and the always under respected Arizona Cardinals with decent enough shots to also unseat them.)

But the Bills, by sacking Aaron Rodgers more times than the Packers recently improving offensive line would prefer, and smacking the ball away a few times in the process, send the ‘Pack packing, and pull off the surprise upset.  Even if their normal December “cold Buffalo weather “advantage might be somewhat nullified by a team seemingly from the Midwest’s version of Alaska – aka, Green Bay, Wisconsin.

Pick: Bills

Dolphins (+7.5) at Patriots

Yes, the Patriots actually held the Chargers to negative yards rushing in the second half in their win last week in San Diego.

Yes the Patriots have dominated this division this entire millennium, and are on a roll right now to boot.

And yes the Dolphins haven’t dominated anything but the occasional autumn sport news headlines down in South Florida. And are rolling themselves, but off of a resounding 28-13 home loss to the Ravens last week in a game they needed to win.

But Miami probably isn’t done speaking yet this season. And have beaten the Patriots 2 out of the last 3 times the two teams have met. (Though both wins were at home.  And they were swept by the Patriots the season before – 2012, and lost by 10 up in New England last season, and 28-0 the season before to close out the year.)

The points are also a little iffy this game, since it’s really a question of whether Miami comes into New England with its ears pinned back – then watch out, it’s anybody’s game. If not, there’s a pretty strong chance the Patriots win this by well more than touchdown.

Balancing that out, this is a decent number of points, even against a Patriots team hitting its stride, and whose defense is really coming together, against a divisional rival team capable of beating them and who probably wants to, badly.

It’s a tough pick, because under Joe Philbin the Dolphins haven’t really ever taken that full step to the next level. And just when it looked like they may have slipped in under the radar to become a strong team this year, they lost at the end in Detroit in week 10, and have slipped back into a just barely on the outside looking in team, once again – needing that win at home last week against the Ravens, a team that under head coach John Harbaugh and quarterback Joe Flacco, has repeatedly beaten the Dolphins.

This might be one of the weaker picks of the week (though by accident it would look genius if the Dolphins pull off the upset).  The reason behind it is the idea that Miami will go in and give it their all and then some, and make it a tough game all around. If that call is wrong – and we’ll know soon enough -well, then, this pick is a pretty bad one:

Pick: Dolphins

Catch you on the flip side, as we sift through the wreckage after the fact of this week’s picks. (Whoever “you are,” as right now the only verified devotedly regular reader of this blog is my neighbor’s cat “Frenchie,” who somehow has learned to read in English, and taken a penchant – very surprising for a cat – toward watching football of all things, ever since Dish TV cancelled his favorite mice marathon racing channel.)


This piece originally consisted of only the pick for Thursday Night’s game to start off the week (pick: Cardinals, +6), and has been updated and expanded to include all of the key picks for week 15 and more, and moved here.

Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread Includes Some Whoppers

A minimally frustrating moment for the humble proprietor of this humble little blog, last week finishing up a bit disappointing 3-3, after a poor (but in hindsight ironic) record the week before, and a pretty decent week 7 – the first week these picks started. Continue reading

Carolina Panthers Have Another Yet Another Come From Ahead Defeat Against the Defending Super Bowl Champions

With last Sunday’s late game come from ahead to lose defeat, the Carolina Panthers have now managed to lose by just about the same amount, in just about the same fashion, to the same team, and in the same place – their own home stadium – three years running. Continue reading

The Tennessee Titans, Currently Languishing, did not Think Through Their Offseason Head Coaching Change

The Tennessee Titans rallied to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 16-14 last week, in a game that head coach Ken Whisenhunt thought they were going to lose. Prior to that, they won handily, then lost by 16, 26, and 24 points, then 1, while giving up the largest road comeback in NFL history. Continue reading

The Michael Sam Experiment

(Updated below)

Michael Sam, who plays defensive end, is the first “openly gay” NFL prospect or player.

Sam did not however spring a surprise on his team after being either drafted, making a roster, or earning a starting spot. All of these would have forced the issue a little more strongly, and perhaps helped make it passe – as presumably one’s sexual orientation should be – more quickly.

Instead Sam declared before the draft – perhaps a little boldly in one sense since there was and after the fact is a legitimate chance that his declaration would and did hurt his draft status,

But by declaring before the draft rather than after making a team, he avoided the possibility of having any team that selected him feel like they were misled.

Sexual “orientation” has nothing to do with play on the field. But guys do share locker rooms, showers, etc. The topic is also a huge social issue – and thus a major media issue as well. And since everyone knows there are gay players in the NFL (just not who, nor should it matter) the fact that players have all chosen to keep it quiet is revealing.

And it is also interesting to see what happens with the first player who openly declares it – particularly when the declaration was made before they have even made a roster.

But, interesting or not, there has been a LOT of media coverage, and some criticism of that coverage. And some of it has been a little questionable. ESPN’s reporting that Sam did not shower with the team, for example (and for which ESPN later apologized), may have been a little over the top, for instance. And, as with many issues, there has been an overly narrow and near constant focus on the issue, to the exclusion of many other newsworthy stories; until the next story of the moment comes around.

Yet the Sam declaration, the ensuing spring draft, and his attempt to make an NFL roster is a story line nearly fit for a dramatic T.V. series; and thus t is going to be covered. While NFL teams, on the other hand, usually want to avoid media issues that don’t focus on football, particularly if they can be seen as distracting.

For that reason, an NFL team may have felt that if someone was going to come out right after being drafted or after making a team’s official roster, they could just as easily have given the team a heads up before the draft instead, so that the team – right or wrong to view it as an issue this way – could determine to what extent they want to deal with it.

Thus while it would have also been bold of Sam to wait until after (and if) he made a roster to make his declaration – again to really force the issue – it could also be seen as the more deferential move to his possible future team to to not use them to pull such a surprise, but give notice in advance.

Yet some of the criticism directed at Sam was focused on this fact that he did not “wait” until after being drafted and making a team. But had he done that, the criticism of Sam would have undoubtedly been even higher.

Both “criticisms,” are valid: Sam could have boldly made the implicit point that it should not matter, and so declare after a team chose him. Or respect the team’s interest in knowing of the possible media scrutiny (as well as his own interest in subsequently making the team or engendering good will), in advance. Which means neither criticism really, is valid, since there is probably no right and no wrong answer.

What’s interesting is that in some ways, in the ensuing draft, Sam went to just about one of the worst team’s he could have gone to. The St. Louis Rams.

He made it to the final 58 players of the Rams however. But with four former first round picks and plenty of additional solid players on their defensive line (including, as it turns out, a potential great rookie free agent find in Ethan Westbrook) that team may have been the worst for Sam to go to in this spring’s draft.

Apart from the fact that head coach Jeff Fisher is in some ways a think outside of the box head coach – who also doesn’t seem to care too much what other people think, and who has seemed pretty good at keeping his team and players in line and is thus perhaps less likely to worry about ancillary controversies – it was a surprise, and it made little sense that Sam was drafted by the Rams, of all teams.

Namely, given the fact that out of all 32 teams in the NFL, the team that drafted the first openly gay player, a defensive lineman, probably had the best all around and deepest defensive line in the football.

In other words, from a pure football perspective, it would have made more sense if the Rams had been the last team to draft Sam, not the first. Yet here’s a Bleacher Report article from draft weekend explaining why Sam is a perfect fit for the Rams.

I don’t, and didn’t agree with the article: The most important thing for any player, openly gay or not, is to first make the team. And Sam’s shot at a team that was so strong at D line was simply weaker in St. Louis than with many other teams. Still, the article makes some good points.

And the fact that Sam made the final 58 players on this team and yet didn’t get picked up by any other team is suggestive of something going on. But there has been criticism of this view, based on the idea that Sam played well against other 3rd and 4th stringers, and that he was a late 7th round draft pick to begin with.

Sam’s ability to make a club is limited by the fact that he is not versatile, and isn’t really a special teams players. However, he was also projected to go higher in the draft – around the 4th round apparently –  and was probably only a 7th round pick because of his pre-draft declaration. And in the preseason. the consensus is he played better than expected. But playing against other players also struggling to make teams is what making a team – some team, somewhere – is about. That is, being one of the players among the later round picks, who plays well against like competition.

If this is all accurate – and it is hard to say that it is with certainty – then a player that is projected to go in the 4th round, but goes in the 7th, but plays better than “projected,” ought to make a roster, or at least practice squad, somewhere.

Although it is also hard to say for certain, Sam may have even made the roster of a team with arguably the best overall defensive line in the NFL -the Rams – had the Rams not made a good find in free agent rookie pickup Ethan Westbrook, who reportedly beat him out for the final spot. That is, Sam still almost made it to the final roster of a team deep at the position.

Thus for him to not land on another team with a weaker defensive line, or at least another team’s practice squad over final cut down weekend (last weekend) is probably not just attributable to the commonly declared idea that he was “a 7th round pick playing against scrubs who just did not show he was good enough.”

More likely – as evidenced by the fact that no NFL team even drafted him until there were only 8 picks remaining in the entire 2014 draft (no. 249, where the Rams, who also had the 250th pick, chose Sam, out of 256 total) – no team thought it was worth the attention or issue. (Although this is by no means assured. Players projected to go in a certain round do wind up going a lot higher or lower frequently enough, albeit usually for “various reasons.” And the reason here may, or may not have been, Sam’s declaration.)

Buffalo Bills center Eric Wood apparently thought the declaration probably had something to do with it as well. And the ensuing media focus:

On Sunday, Wood tweeted  it was due to likely media hype – and in particularly ESPN hype (somewhat aggressively parodied – see second half of this clip – on the Daily Show several days ago) –  that Sam was not yet on a roster. That is, for a player who would not be a starter, teams probably wouldn’t want the constant attention. (Woods tweet was picked up by numerous sports sources, including at ProFootballTalk, as well as by the Huffington Post, in a fairly short, informative article.)

There is one team though that is more like a national T.V. show than any other, and it also happens to be nicknamed “America’s Team.” The Dallas Cowboys.

This team, as it happens, may also have one of the worst defensive lines, and worst defensive line depth in the NFL. Despite going 8-8 for the third straight season last year, they also gave up more yards than any other team in the NFL last season.

This team needs defensive help. And this team needs defensive line help – particularly with the loss of one of the more dominant pass rushers in the game over the past decade, DeMarcus Ware (who went to Denver, who at at a dominant 13-3 last year hardly needed help), and an apparent lack of depth at the position,

Thus several days after Saturday’s final NFL roster cuts, and after not one team in the NFL had claimed Sam for its roster or even it’s 10 additional player practice squad, “America’s team” signed the former Rams draft pick to its practice  squad.

The story, for now, continues.

Sam reportedly did not look as strong in practice as he did in games  for the Rams. But the interesting question still remains.  Will he wind up moving to the Cowboy’s regular roster, and get into an NFL game?

In week 3 of this season, Dallas Travels to St. Louis, to face the team with arguably the best D line in football, and the team that originally drafted Sam. The Rams.

Only 46 players of those on the active roster can even dress for a game. To be in uniform, Sam would have to crack the 53 man roster, and be selected to dress as one of the 46 as well. Perhaps in part simply because of the story, but undoubtedly also because of the Cowboy’s defensive line woes, this week NFL Total Access co-host Dan Hellie predicted we”ll more likely than not see Sam on the team for the game against the Rams September 21.

It would certainly make for yet another good story line.

Update: Once Sam joined the Cowboys’ practice squad, the story seemed to die down, and nearly fade completely once the regular season started shortly thereafter.

The fact that the Cowboys, who were expected to have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, have played very strongly – including on defense (even with once gain losing their excellent middle linebacker Sean Lee for the season) – probably also helped diminish attention on the issue further.

And on October 21st, the Cowboys released Sam from their practice squad.  Yet as reminded in an informative NYTs article, Rams head coach Fisher has stated he “believes Sam can play in this league.”

As does Sam, who has been allegedly been offered opportunity (and advice) to play in Canada, and understandably wants to try and make it in the NFL.

Once again, we’ll see what happens.

Aside from the seeming parody (one hopes it is parody) of the meaningless correlation between the Rams and Cowboys losing after Sam was no longer officially part of their roster, there are arguments from commentators that given his pass rushing skill set, Sam should probably be with a team or its practice squad somewhere in the NFL right now. (Particularly – if team’s believe it – if Sam’s sexual orientation is a “dead issue,” as Cowboy’s owner Jerry Jones sensibly declared recently.)

But at this point it’s really also just about a player, and whether or not he makes it in the NFL; with the effect of Sam’s declaration (which, after getting cut by the Cowboys, he has moderately questioned) perhaps speculation at this point, perhaps not.